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Strangely as it seems, since 2001 I always believed the
future way of
broadcasting and wealth will come by providing high rich media content.
The current bulk of content on face
book cannot be described as high in
content or rich in media value.
But the service does provide a
subscriber base and geographical landscape data on ages and trends. The
investment by Microsoft to me is not one for the next 2 - 3
years.
But part of the great scheme of things and with a 10
year
strategy. To try and get any real idea of direction or agenda out of Microsoft is like
trying to crack a nut open with a feathered duster.
One of my biggest gripes over the years is with all of William Gates
wealth, what is the big picture. There has never been any real clarity
for had their of been, it may of created an environment of continued
support for Windows, rather than a suspicious and mistrusting attitude.
These are comments and sentiments that Microsoft are fully aware of.
believe me! After
3 Senior Managers contacting your sincerely, throughout 2005 and 2006
regarding the situation with Microsoft
and the development of a
completely new technology in the way of 64 bit. As like war in business
there comes a point, if the campaign is long and arduous, you
eventually
run out of generals, or they go over to the other side as they no
longer believe in the cause.
Sadly this can be said with regards to the
development of Vista and Longhorn. Yes it has been released, and yes it
working OK.
But if you plan on entering a formula one race? You need
the
likes of Ron Dennis and Frank Williams on the development and
construction side, sadly this isn't the case.
To summarize with
the 64 bit technology they have bitten off more than they can chew. I
also suggested to gain back customer support and confidence. Was to
make
all future product releases on a subscription basis in view of the fact
that
product is always released too early and a great many patches and fixes
follow.
In a subscription environment, member users getting new
updates and software would
not frown upon Microsoft, but welcome the improvements and think, "hey Microsoft you are
great", sadly they did not take my advice and went halfway, with an
advertising campaign extolling the virtues of Microsoft, the peoples
technology, reliable and the ones you can trust. Hollow promises
without the full deal!
So where do you think Microsoft
are going? Well again, I think they have
realised that they have shot themselves so many times in the foot, the
waters at present are very muddied. The European Union have issued a
hammer blow regarding technology and the release of information of
Windows operating systems.
This now open ups the gateway, for the
development of free open source release of a windows type OS that is a
familiar environment and user friendly compatible operating system
within the next 12 months.
So their monopoly in this
area is coming to a close. I should image Bill has kicked the Cat and
bashed his head against the wall regarding the Media Centre side of
things as well.
Microsoft today,
could of been leading the way in this field and
would not of had to buy into the likes of Face Book, but sadly back in
1998 if I recall I received a communication from Wally (nice time of
the year December 12) at Microsoft.
Informing me that the Web TV and Rich media content
systems development programme had been pulled. The excuse was that
Phillips had pulled out.
There is an old saying. If it's worth doing well, then do it yourself.
Sometimes the only person that can direct successfully an organization
is the architect. For it is the case for them to derive at this point
successfully and endorses your tenacity and skill to the fact that your
instincts were right.
When building a business, especially niche markets on a
local scale,
impact and performance has greater tolerance with regards to refining a
module and getting it right or wrong. On the global scheme of things
it's like the Super Bowl or FA Cup Final. There is no room for error
here as this is the big league and boy, will you get eaten!!! Every
single detail has to be in exact finite form and comes
collectively with a time scale.
Now in view of such importance! Where
only you, live and breath your industry, constantly beat yourself up
over presentation, design, delivery, manufacture etc. Why on earth do
you then entrust the decisions to be made by others.
Unfortunately now, Microsoft
is of such a size, as explained to me once,
like a massive oil tanker turning, that it is going to require a great
deal of
time, before the ship will respond and then turn. Historically, that
was Big Blue's problem.
I believe Microsoft
already knows that if there is any future, it is with Rich Media
Content
as a provider and Delivery System. Operating systems will be dead in
the water after 2008, as you will be able to download a new operating
system on a week or daily basis, as you can now with Mozilla Fire Fox,
from the Mozilla Foundation.
Hardware? they have never really been
involved with this sector and is a market place full of mine fields.
The only
survivors emerging from the clouded water are the original developers
and vendors of Personal and Small Business PC's being Hewlett Packard
and Apple.
Dell unfortunately went in the direction of the noble
cause, making PC's affordable for the masses. But in hindsight, should
of
stayed upmarket as a custom builder. For many of the imported
components
are creating massive problems in life cycle and quality, especially the
processor chips. I would say Apple,
will
no doubt start knocking on the door of Dell soon as that is the route
for future recovery of Dell and re-aligning itself in the custom
upmarket area.
Mobile technology? Is a complete no go in hard ware, as
key developers
for WAP content delivery and technologies have gone and set up on their
own.
Asia Pacific, Africa and the Far East are more Linux
driven, based on
the fact, that the technology in the way of operating systems are free.
And
the main frame technology supplied and delivered by Big Blue (IBM).
So
setting up a subscription idea that I put to them two years ago may of
been their saving grace.
Search engine technology? Is being fought out
between Yahoo and Google. Yahoo will eventually win
that one, as Google know they are cash rich, but technology poor and
have no real sound physical assets. Hence, their aggressive hunt and
move into the take up of actual Telecom networks and plans to lay new
Atlantic and Pacific Cable Networks. They are the .Com crash all rolled
in to one business just about to happen? China and India just won't let
it happen and they will be competing against two super states.
MSN Live is only a
token effort and sadly
still with functionality issues when it comes to users with other
browser ware that is not Internet
Explorer, like Fire Fox,
Netscape and Opera.
So I believe for Microsoft to get their foot
back in the door on Multimedia Content is through the likes of Face
Book. The only problem short, mid and long term is that Face book and a
likes, is only a temporary novel idea, in view of our current
superficial
society where every child and teenager wants to be a celebrity for five
minutes and face book is a suitable vehicle.
The crunch will come in
the next twelve to twenty four months when our industry will see ethics
and codes of conduct implemented. Microsoft
will not be able to flout
the law and these issues as they have created too many enemies in the
past.
The
Internet is a broadcasting medium and will eventually come completely
under that banner. Microsoft
cannot therefore make further enemies as
it has successfully done so in the past, with reference to media
services like Hot mail and chat. Where abuse was rife and no real
concerted effort was made to tailor it. Ironically, most of the viruses
and worm attacks to try and bring down the Microsoft Empire originated
from Hot mail accounts.
On an investment stand point and view. Microsoft's recent success, has
been partly due to new product release. But to sustain such a
performance and growth, cannot be seen or achieved beyond the next
twelve months.
They say, what comes around, goes around!
Watch this space, there is one
person who would not hesitate in quietly chipping away at Microsoft
shares for a takeover in the next 12 to 36 months and that would be
Steve Jobs. Hmm Food for Thought. Apple
are slick, fashionable and in demand. In the past few years with the
Hughes syndrome that everyone is out to get you and complete paranoia
has set in. The Windows operating system has lost it's leading edge
and development quality direction as a result of poor senior
management. Windows now sadly, represents the Ford. And the money
people are going for the Mercedes and Audi's and that is Apple!
Watch those apple shares go up baby!!!!
Written by
Alastair Agutter
2007-10-31
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