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This last two months I have been carefully studying our
statistics and was able to determine for January that market trends
online were more than 30% down in comparison to 2007 same period.
February continued to dip and in less than 3 months Google has lost
over 40% of it's value.
Many of the so called Wall Street experts are saying this time it is
different to the late 1990's in the tech industry and how right they
are. But if they believe this time can sustain the collapse they need
to think again and understand our industry.
We had people in the 1990's buying into the Dot Com industry and didn't
even know what a web site or server was. This time round they've
invested again, believing to be sound investments, but still don't
understand the dynamics of the industry.
Just recently in our announcements page, we stated that we will not get
the real picture until the first quarters are published. But the smart
movers and ones that will survive this crash like Barnes Noble are
playing a safe hand by declaring that sales will be down this year and
getting the bad news out now. The difference with Barnes Noble as
opposed to the other industries that are going to cause massive damage
and causalities is that Barnes Noble is what I describe as a
traditional online trading industry sector business. In effect a long
established traditional book and video seller embracing online
technology to develop additional revenue streams.
The ones that are going to collapse and suffer this time are ones as
mentioned before that are rich in intellectual technology but empty on
hardened assets. The software and user consumer sectors will be more
adversely affected like google for instance and other search engine and
end user services that are dependent on traffic and consumer demand for
social networking, entertainment and trivia.
Others that I see to be in danger are long term software vendors that
have exhausted the market place and still running at a loss due to long
term development.
What I cannot understand for the life of me, with the state of the
Internet and telecommunications infrastructure why investors are not
realizing the big picture and buying into these industries. Eventually
something has to give and the fact is we need more hardened physically
installed services in this sector.
Within the next 5 years the industry will be at collapse, the
infrastructure is already at breaking point. The future is definitely
in Cable and Telecoms.
by
Alastair Agutter - 2008-03-04
Apple's Steve Jobs says 'No dividend or
Buyback' of Shares!
Steve Jobs', Apples Boss
announced today at Shareholders meeting that there will be no dividends
or buyback of shares. It's not yet official or known, but clearly long
term plans are a foot.
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Steve Job's may have told his investors
today that there won't be any dividends or share buyback. But I am
still going with my instinct and beleive the current situation is a
temporary hick up. I believe there is a substantial demand for Apple
goods and on top of that they have,
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what I call the 'X Factor', that makes
the future so very bright. The main problem and dilemma I beleive
they have is meeting the demand in a managed way to ensure steady
growth and not a case of ups and downs in their business model, that
creates problems in manufacturing and production continuity.
I think Mr Jobs has a long term strategy and believes that this
recession may see competitive causalities. The recent dip in shares is
not as a result of product or sales. It is again another example of
investors not understanding the industry.
The new iPhone, Mac and Mac Air are winners. There is also a lot of
potential there to take a leaf out of 'Big Blue's Book' and that is to
offer bolt on applications and hardware to develop a lock in A and B
market consumer loyalty environment.
The picture may look grime as I say at present for Apple, but they will
steadily trade out of this environment and be one of the survivors and
the smart long term visionaries that invest now will be the benefactors.
There is no doubt in my mind that we are heading for another crash, the
figures stack up to nothing but a crash and recession. Hardware and
technologies are in such an abundance and so cheap. That there comes a
time to realize that you can only sell so many processors, computers,
and software.
Unless, you are unique or have a sort after demand niche product market
and that's exactly where I believe Apple are positioning themselves. I
believe they know their market well now and have designed the business
and it's future on that strategy.
Like I have been saying in the industry for the past three years,
quality not quantity.
Watch this space and Safe Surfing!
by
Alastair Agutter - 2008-03-04
Riverside Networks Partners with Double
Click and AOL For Long Term Quality Services and Branding Strategy
Over the years since
Riverside Networks inception, it has struggled with the rapid changes
that has taken place in relation to the Internet's geographical
landscape. But behind the scenes, had a passionate and a long term
objective that can now be realized in the current climate.
It was always a long term
aim to try and formulate some very niche market areas to benefit the
home and business user. But for many years Riverside Networks, like
many in the industry got distracted or caught up in the speed and cycle
of change and at it's cost.
But fortunately now, governed and based upon experience and instinct.
The landscape is again changing to favour the original long term aims
of Riverside Networks. All too often we have seen in the past, fashion
comes and fashion goes. It is also the case that many phenomena's in
our industry have been exposed to both ends of architectural success
and disaster. In the coming twenty four to thirty six months, we will
again be witness to such events.
Riverside Networks can finally and quietly continue the original long
term aims and instinctive mission in the release and development of
more traditional forms of Publications as an Internet Services Provider
and at the same time, providing benchmark standards and formats, that
is the desire of many, in our industry, from the creator of the Web,
Sir Tim Berners Lee to the BBC.
The current trends, gimmicks and fads are just a rebellious part of
chaos in the industries history and reflects today's society in
relation to superficial novelty and mass indulgence. But out of the
chaos is the demand for high quality, well designed and clearly laid
out electronic publishing solutions. An area that we intend to develop
as there is none better and from a position of strength, as being one
of the few unencumbered businesses in our industry.
The services will be international and local with the encouragement to
re-engage back to traditional ideals, with out page web linking, to
fellow quality news and media publishers.
As the services are planned and built, Riverside Networks will provide
for the developer, high quality benchmark templates and icons.
Riverside will also provide tutorials, not just in the development of
perfect web pages for cross platform interpretability. But areas of the
bigger picture, in relation to the development and creation of RMB's
(content audio), as part of the goal to socially aid community members
who suffer from sight and dyslexia to mention just two areas.
The development of the brand and publications does not have a time line
other than to get it absolutely right.
If you would like to keep up to date and learn more, please contact us here!
Until the next time, safe surfing!
Written by
Alastair Agutter
2008-03-04
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